The sudden regime change in Sri Lanka where former President Mahinda Rajapaksa became new Prime Minister as President Maithripala Sirisena’s United People’s Freedom Alliance left the National Unity Government with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Party on issues related to Economy and Security and now Gotabaya Rajapaksa brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa is elected as President.
Gotabaya Rajapaksa and brother Mahinda Rajapaksa who ruled Sri Lanka during 2005-2015 with strong hand as inherently “PRO-CHINA” Although Rajapaksa blamed India for their defeat in 2015 elections but they have sought to make up with Delhi in recent years. South block has rightly put aside it’s reservations about Rajapaksas and has been engaging all major political formations in Sri Lanka. The stage is then ready for a reset in bilateral relations.
The reset involves addressing structural factors which have complicated relationship between Delhi and Colombo. One of them is China question? India is acutely aware that China’s economic and strategic salience in the subcontinent will continue to grow and is not tied to regime leadership in it’s neighbourhood. Consider the case of outgoing coalition led by President Sirisena and PM Wickremesinghe that proves irrelevance of labelling governments in Colombo as “PRO-CHINA” or “PRO-INDIA”. It came to power criticising the Chinese projects in Sri Lanka as financially unsustainable. Two years into power the coalition extended full backing to Chinese projects. The so called “PRO-INDIA” regime that offered China a 99 years lease on Hambantota project and stalled key projects of interest to Delhi. So, in any case Delhi can’t expect it’s neighbours to shut down economic and commercial engagement with Beijing. But Delhi will be right to ask Colombo not to take steps with Beijing that threaten India’s Security.
New Lankan leadership’s eagerness to signal goodwill towards India says that China is “Trade Partner” while India is “Close Relative”. In South Asian context Trade Partners may come and go but relatives are for keeps. As world rediscovers the geopolitical value of Sri Lanka at the heart of Indo-Pacific, Colombo has huge opportunities to leverage it’s location for national benefit. The prudent and important part of that strategy would be to avoid provoking India. Delhi would also be wise mindful of Colombo’s security concerns and find ways to develop long term strategic cooperation with Lanka.
Delhi needs to invest some political capital in resolving problems such as long standing dispute over fisheries. Beyond it’s objection to China’s BRI Projects, Delhi either alone or in partnership with like minded countries like Japan should offer sustainable terms for infrastructure development. Delhi also needs to contribute more to the development of Colombo’s defence and counter terror capabilities. The second structural factor shaping India’s relations with Sri Lanka is the Tamil question. It’s involvement in Lanka’s tragic Civil war made Delhi learnt the dangers of being drawn too deep into domestic conflicts of neighbouring countries. Successive governments in Delhi from 1989-2014 to balance pulls and pressure from Chennai and Colombo have struggled a lot. The strong mandate in 2014 given to the BJP provides greater room to manage competing imperatives on Lanka Policy. But, Tamil question has not gone away. If new government in Colombo can advance reconciliation with Tamil minority it will be easier for PM Narendra Modi to strengthen ties with Gotabaya Government. But, Tamil issue is no longer bilateral even the western powers expressed concern about war crimes in military campaign against LTTE and need to bring responsible to book. The Rajapaksa said they will not bend before foreign pressure. Too much heat from west will increase China’s leverage in Colombo. In order to reset it’s relations with Lanka, Delhi must try to encourage reconciliation with Lanka and across Palk Strait in Tamil Nadu and must use it’s diplomacy in the world so Lankan Government may not be pressured from Foreign powers.
Reluctant Economist 